Wednesday 4 March 2015

3pm update - 5 of 6

Despite the current daily decline (with likely weakness into the close) it remains somewhat ironic that despite net daily declines for the past 5 of 6 days, the sp'500 remains within 1.1% of the historic high. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3, whilst Oil has built (unsustainable) gains of 2.6%.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

Downside target remains sp'2065.. which should equate to VIX (briefly) in the 17s.

Absolute best downside is arguably the 2040s with VIX 18/19s, but frankly.. that looks highly improbable.. not least as the ECB QE-pomo train is about to arrive in the EU.
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Notable weakness... a great many I could list....

AA, BTU, CHK, SDRL, TCK, all of those remain bearish in the near/mid term.
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updates into the close... not least if we slip into the 2080s.
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3.15pm.. market stuck under the sp'2100 threshold.

I realise some have been recently calling for 2088 as a low.. but to me.. that makes little sense. The daily MACD cycle only turned negative today, and typically can fall for another 3-5 days.

The 2060s look due... but clearly.. that will be pretty difficult before the weekly close.
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meanwhile... the comedy continues in the land of (toxic?) wood.

LL, daily


Another dire day for Lumber Liquidators... and looks even worse on a giant 10yr monthly chart. No apparent floor until.... $0.00


3.45pm.. Despite all the micro rallies... looks like we'll get that close under the daily 10MA... and the sp'2100 threshold.

back at the close... to wrap up the day.