Tuesday 10 March 2015

3pm update - battling into the close

It remains a tough battle in market land with a fractionally lower low of sp'2048.30.. although the VIX is not confirming the move via a new high. A closing hour mini ramp is viable... into the sp'2060s. Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$5. Oil is trying to floor, -2.7%.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

So... an hour left..  on what has been a more bearish day than even I was looking for (original target was 2065/60).

There remains VERY high threat of a closing hour ramp.. even as high as the low 2060s.. where the 50dma is lurking.
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On any basis, hourly equity/VIX cycles are set to turn... and now its a case of whether the bulls can break the down trend from sp'2119. It won't take much... anything >2065/70 will break trend.
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....updates into the close


3.15pm.. Ironically.. its getting a little tedious, even though the market is sp -29pts !

Hourly cycles still look set to turn higher.. and more than anything right now, it would bemuse me why any of the bears would remain short overnight.


3.35pm... Market still stuck around 2050... with VIX 16.40s. 

Today has unquestionably been a day for the bears... but who wants to hold short overnight?

Notable weakness, miners, GDX -1.3%