Saturday 21 March 2015

Mid-term turn for King Dollar?

The hugely powerful rally from May 2014 - DXY 78.93, to the recent high of 100.71, appears to have concluded. A very natural retrace to the multi-year breakout - in the 90/87 zone looks increasingly probable across the spring/summer.


USD, monthly



USD, weekly, with fib retrace


Summary

It has been a long week.. so this will be brief - despite the fact I could chat about currencies for a considerable number of pages!
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The weekly cycle looks maxed out... and even the monthly is now offering the first provisional warning via a moderately spiky-top candle.

A retrace to the breakout - achieved last November, looks very viable across the next few months.

If correct, then a weaker dollar will be very bullish for both the equity and commodity markets.
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*Bonus chart*

My home market - UK, monthly, 20yr



Finally, the UK FTSE has broken the 7k threshold. Next upside is upper trend/channel resistance, which by end year will be around 8k.
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Have a good weekend
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes