Thursday 14 May 2015

11am update - USD flooring?

Whilst equities are holding moderate gains, sp +14pts @ 2113, there has been a potentially key opening reversal in the USD/Euro. Primary target zone were the DXY 93/92s.. and there is now high risk of at least a short term USD bounce. Metals are starting to cool from their earlier highs, Gold +$6.


UUP' 60min



FXE'60min



Summary

*I can't chart DXY intraday.. using UUP/FXE as valid alternatives
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UUP has an opening reversal, but perhaps more notable.. an opening black-fail candle for FXE.

This morning certainly doesn't feel like capitulation in currency land.. but at the very least.. there is threat of 1-2 weeks USD bounce.

If Mr Market really wants to wash out the max' number of USD bulls, it'll bounce for week or so.. then break a new low with a key floor in DXY 90/89s.

In any case... we're headed for 120s eventually.. and that will cause all sorts of 'issues'.
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notable strength: FB +2.6%.. with rather active trading.


Daily cycle looks set for a bullish MACD cross late today/tomorrow. A daily close above the 50dma of $81s would be very bullish for next week.. and probably into early June.
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11.04am.. Ohoh, Draghi is talking at the IMF.... cnbc europe is covering it.. no idea if USA version is.


11.08am.. USD turns positive for the day, from -0.4% earlier. Hmmm


11.34am.. the momo chasers are out in force today, FB +3.0%.. AAPL +1.8%.. it all bodes well for the bulls into tomorrow's OPEX.

VIX -5% in the low 13s... reflecting a market that has ZERO concern about anything.