Wednesday 13 May 2015

Bond yields maxed?

It was a particularly interesting morning in US bond land, with TLT starting the day with a classic reversal candle (intra low $118.82), and settling +0.2% @ $119.81. The daily, weekly, and monthly cycles are offering a grander top of 140/150 in the late summer/early autumn. From there.. things could get real interesting.


TLT, 60min



TLT, daily



TLT, monthly2, with outlook


Summary

*one particularly bizarre aspect is how the market can see something differently.. given some time. For instance, last October.. as yields dropped - with bond prices soaring, the equity market was upset... flooring Oct'15th.

Today, bond prices opened lower.. as yields rose... but then a turn, bond prices rose, with equities recovering into the afternoon.

Yes, there are a great many other variables, but still... it is the case that Mr Market will choose to perceive something as bad in one time frame, only to see it as good some months later.
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As for equities, the sp'500 weekly 'rainbow' candle remains blue.


Upper weekly bollinger is still offering the 2140s this month, with 2160/70s by mid June.
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Looking ahead

Wed' will see retail sales, import/export prices, bus' inventories, along with the latest EIA report.

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Goodnight from London