Monday 29 June 2015

2pm update - more sunshine for the bears

US equities continue to slip, with the sp' breaking the double floor of 2072... with a new cycle low of 2070, with VIX +26% in the 17.70s. Near term outlook remains bearish, as the market will remain very vulnerable to sporadic 'spooky Greek' news.


sp'60min



VIX'daily3



Summary

The overnight futures low of sp'2060 looks set to be tested.. whether into today's close.. or tomorrow.

The real issue is whether the 200dma of 2053 will hold.. or if the market can see a more significant down wave to the giant 2K threshold. The latter will certainly not be easy.. but it is a valid target into early next week.

notable weakness: airlines, DAL -2.1%, UAL -2.7%.. as the transports continues to unravel.

tech, INTC, -1.5% @ $30.50... a natural low would be around $29.00
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strength: TLT +2.3%... as bond yields continue to fall

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meanwhile... it is another fine summers day in London...

blue skies for the bears

Permabearish shadow


stay tuned :)
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2.14pm.. sp'2069.... VIX 17.94.....   as noted earlier... next VIX resistance is not until the 20/21 zone... which would arguably equate to a test of the 200dma of sp'2053.

notable weakness, USD, -0.6% @ DXY 94.90s.... as the Euro shorts are getting whacked via central bank intervention.


2.23pm.. no floor until at least 2060... ... with VIX open air to 20/21.

Considering the market has a Greek 'missed IMF' payment due.. and the uncertainty of the referendum... things remain a real problem.

 notable weakness, Ford, -3.0%.. in the upper $14s.