Wednesday 1 July 2015

12pm update - increasing weakness

US equities are holding moderate gains, sp +12pts @ 2075.. (intra high 2082), but look increasingly vulnerable this afternoon. Hourly MACD cycle is set to rollover before the close. VIX is offering a spike floor of 15.65, with viable upside to 20/21.. if sp'2055/50 zone by the Thursday/weekly close.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*Oil is notably weak, -2.7%... as supply is simply too high
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Some mild equity chop, the hourly MACD cycle looks set to rollover in the late afternoon.

Again, its a case of 'who wants to be long into the holiday weekend? In theory, market should see at least some degree of weakness... a full test of the 200dma of 2054 still seems viable.

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notable weakness: INTC -1.1% around the $30 threshold.. The low 29s look due.. before first chance of a bounce... and that is a good indirect signal that the broader market is still vulnerable into the weekend.. and early next week.

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time for some more ice.