Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -0.6pts @ 2076 (intra high 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will depend almost entirely on the result of the Greek referendum. A 'no' vote would bode for another 2-3% lower next Monday.


sp'daily5

R2K

Trans

Summary

*notable weakness in the R2K, with price structure being a bear flag.. already breaking lower. First target would be the big 1200 threshold.
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It was a pretty dynamic week for US equities, with a severe Monday drop of sp -43pts @ 2060, but then a fair amount of chop.. arguably, forming a large bear flag.

Based on price structure alone, I'd be inclined to seek a sharply lower Monday, but if the Greeks vote 'yes'... many will probably chase prices higher.

My best guess.... market trades lower.

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a little more later..