Wednesday 29 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2098. From a pure cyclical perspective, equities will be particularly vulnerable later today and into early Thursday. With the USD broadly flat, metals and Oil are similarly u/c.


sp'60min



vix'60min


Summary

Well, its Fed day... again.

Expect a lot of minor chop into the afternoon. Then.. some swings... and then the market is going to pick a direction... and likely stay with it into next week.

There is key GDP data tomorrow morning.. so that will be an issue... but still... equity bears should be somewhat desperate for a net daily decline today... even a moderate one.

*I am long-VIX. I can imagine the 12s will be hit (if briefly) today.. which won't be so great... I'd sure like to see a daily close at least in the 14s.. if not the 15s.
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notable early movers..

TWTR -9% in the $33s. An ugly reversal from the AH high of $40.90. It would seem that acting CEO Dorsey can really upset the market with each word he mutters.

YELP -20%.. post earnings upset

AKAM -9%... another post earnings sell off.

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Overnight China action: There was talk of a $100bn Govt' fund to prop up equities, which sure helped turn the Shanghai comp' in the late afternoon, settling +3.4% @ 3789. Broadly... renewed downside remains due.. to the 3200/3000 zone. 2500 remains a valid capitulation low in early Oct'.
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Doom chatter, Hunter with Roberts



As ever.. make of that.. .what you will.
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Have a good Wednesday!
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8.01am... re: TWTR...


Keep in mind the IPO price was $26 in Nov' 2013. The lowest level ever traded was $29.51 (May 7th 2014). Considering anticipated main market weakness into the early autumn, and the break to the 32s post earnings, further weakness to the IPO price looks probable.
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8.48am.. Indexes cooling.. back to flat...   sp' 2093.  Regardless of the exact open though.... minor chop into the afternoon. Then things get dynamic.