Wednesday 8 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately lower, sp -16pts, we're set to open at 2065. USD is in cooling mode, -0.3% in the DXY 96.60s. Metals are a touch higher, Gold +$2, whilst Oil is -0.7%.


sp'daily5


Summary

*futures have recovered around half of earlier declines, sp'500 was trading -31pts, around equiv' of 2050.
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We have another interesting day ahead.. as the market is still struggling to cope with the ongoing Greek drama, and the relentless China market implosion.

As things are, I expect yesterdays low of sp'2044 to hold.
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notable early movers...

FXI (China, 1x long) -5.6%
YINN (3x long China).. -17% in the $27s... it was in the low 50s just a few weeks ago

VXX +4%, TVIX/UVXY +7%
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Doomer chat, Hunter with Mr BBRY, aka... Denniger


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Overnight China action: the broad weakness continues, with a new cycle low of 3421, settling -5.9% @ 3507. The fact we've hit the 'natural retrace' in the 3400s is pleasing to see. I suppose we could drop to 3K in the near term... but I find that a little unlikely... assuming the US market can hold the short term low of sp'2044.
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As for me, I still have eyes on INTC-long this morning... anything in the $29.60/50s would be pretty tempting. Early pre-market is already offering the $29.60s...  maybe I can get 29.40/30s by 11am?

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*watching Bloomberg, and I'm reminded that Q2 earnings begin today.. with Alcoa (AA) due at the close. Hard to guess how that one might react. From a pure chart perspective, its due an up cycle, but broadly.. looks headed for the $9s by this Sept/Oct. Lower commodity prices will obviously be a major problem.
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Have a good Wednesday
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9.32am.. Eyes sharp... on INTC... if it fails to hold $29.00... that would be a real concern to me.

As it is.. I'd guess it will hold... and back into the 31s.


9.36am.. Smaller 15min cycle still bodes for weakness for probably an hour...

*Despite INTC in the 29.30s... I am holding off.... at least until the 10am hour.... no hurry... let this nonsense build a floor


9.38am.. As things are.. the 2055/50 zone looks prime area for a floor by 11am.
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9.42am.. notable weakness, the USD, -0.5%.. incredible.. considering the Euro/Greek issue