Wednesday 12 August 2015

Yet another reversal

The US equity market has seen yet another failed rally attempt. The bigger weekly cycle is already offering a marginally lower high of sp'2105, and a lower low of sp'2076. With another reversal, near term outlook is back to outright bearish, first targets are Dow 17000, sp'2050/40s... with VIX 16/17s.


sp'weekly1b



Dow'weekly1b


Summary

Even if you disagree with the notion of a H/S for the Dow, recent price action is clearly one of increasing weakness.

Obviously, the 17k threshold will likely offer very strong support to the Dow, and frankly, I don't expect the market to be trading under there in the current cycle.
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Update from Mario at SMF



There is also a video discussing the Dow, if you check his YT channel.
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The following video by Ron Walker was originally posted at the weekend.

Ignoring the fact that it doesn't take account of the 'Monday nonsense', there are a great many issues highlighted about the bigger monthly charts. In particular the issue of the 10MA... and considerations of the price structure/action in the early phase of the collapse wave of 2007/09.



Highly recommended for those who have the time, and want to consider the grander picture. 
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Looking ahead

Wed' will see the latest EIA report, along with the US treasury budget... but Mr Market has little care for the latter.

*fed official Dudley will be speaking in the early morning.. and its possible a few remarks might be noticed by Mr Market.
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Goodnight from London