Wednesday 4 November 2015

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open a little higher, but the gains have quickly evaporated, with a rather clear reversal. Cyclically, we're due a down cycle... first soft target is around sp'2090.. along with VIX 16.00. Metals are broadly flat. Oil has turned lower, -0.8%.. ahead of the next EIA report.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*a rather clear bullish price structure in the VIX...  the 18/20 zone really isn't that bold a target
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A marginally interesting open, but for now... there is barely any downside power. Hell, even a move to 2090 later today would be little solace to those short from anywhere >2060.

I'm still of the view that the market will NOT make new historic highs (in sp'500/Dow.. not other indexes.. which are lagging anyway).. before a retrace.

Basic target remains 2065/60.. then 2025/20.

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*Yellen is due to speak to the US house... I'm unaware if that will get any live coverage.
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Awaiting EIA oil report at (10.30am)
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10.36am.. Oil inventory surplus.. 2.8 million barrels.. less than last week, but still.. .a sig' surplus.