Tuesday, 21 July 2015

Daily Wrap

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -9pts @ 2119, with the VIX +0.6% @ 12.33. Near term outlook offers at least the sp'2100 threshold.. where the key 50dma is lurking... however there is a 'fair chance' of the secondary gap zone of 2080 being filled... before upside resumes.




Suffice to say.... we have the daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycles turning back... highly indicative of a short term peak of sp'2132... with VIX 11.71.

*I remain holding a small VIX-long position, seeking an exit in the 15s.

a little more later... probably around 7pm EST

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -9pts @ 2119. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.7% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued downside, at least to around 2105/00.. but there remains a chance of filling the secondary gap at 2080.




Well... for yours truly.. it has been one truly bizarre (in a good way) day...  but more on that later

As for equities, there sure are some interesting movers out there... not least in tech land, with IBM in trouble... and INTC an all out tech wreck.

*I will post a combined VIX/Daily index cycle update around 6pm EST

yours... still watching the waves come in


4.38pm.. AAPL getting trash post earnings, -6% @ $121.... as future guidance/estimates are upsetting the market.

The earlier bearish engulfing candle was indeed an early warning.

So.. IBM whacked... now AAPL, who is next?

3pm update - something special

Good afternoon.... brb... just managed to finally logon!

.. and this is where I am sitting right now...

Why post from the capital city.. when a beach is possible?
Market update coming...

3.06pm.. so.. equities are moderately lower, sp -11pts @ 2117... with the VIX +3.6% @ 12.70.

A retrace to the sp2100 threshold is clearly underway.. the only issue is whether 2090/80s are possible before the next lunge higher into August.

Bullish Mounts Bay.... SW England.... at 8.09pm...

Err.. so... I just logged on.... maybe I should be the one asking for an update.. ?

AAPL earnings due at the close, right?

3.19pm sp -11pts.... 2117.....  with the 50dma @ 2102.. we'll surely at least get to there tomorrow or Thursday.

AAPL , daily

Bearish engulfing candle at resistance... hmm....  a case of good earnings.. but the market will sell it down anyway?

notable  weakness, INTC, -1.4% @ $28.60s.... ugly daily/weekly charts...

Headed to at least 26/25.. .if not the H/S target of $22.50... possibly as early as October.

3.44pm...  sp -8pts @ 2119.... just not any sig' downside power today.... seemingly likely though... tomorrow of Thursday.

Quiet start to the week

It was a quiet start to the week for US equities, with the sp +1pt @ 2128 (intra high 2132). A retrace remains due, at least sp'2100, with the lower gap around 2080 looking difficult to reach. Regardless of any weakness this week, there looks to be broader upside into August.



The weekly cycle is offering the 2140s in the immediate term. 2150s look out of range until late next week. By mid August.. the 2160/70s will be viable... 2180/90s on a 'hysteria spike'.

I'm still guessing we will first see a moderate multi-day retrace.. at least down to the sp'2100 threshold.

Looking ahead

Tuesday.. has nothing of significance scheduled.

Special note...

My next post will be no earlier than 3pm EST for the Tuesday closing hour.

If no appearance tomorrow, then I'll endeavour to return for the Wed' closing hour... probably,  ;)  Maybe I will explain more... tomorrow afternoon.. if I'm available.

Goodnight from London

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2128 (intra high 2132). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, but with price action as it is, even the sp'2100 threshold looks a stretch. Regardless, broader upside into August.





*notable weakness in the two market leaders, certainly bodes for a broader market retrace at some point this week.

The sp'500 came awfully close to a new historic high (2134) today, a mere 0.1% shy.

Regardless of any near term retrace, the 2140s look very probable. The only issue is whether the market can manage a tag of the upper monthly bollinger.. currently @ 2182.

a little more later..