Tuesday 16 February 2016

10am update - opening gains

US equities open to the upside, and the market looks set for a significant net daily gain. The sp'1900s are clearly probable, with multiple aspects of resistance in the 1920/30s. Metals are notably weak, cooling from recent hyper gains, Gold -$28, with Silver -2.7%.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



GLD, daily2


Summary

Well, the casino wheel is spinning once more.

Not surprisingly, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are rather pleased with themselves, although they do seem to recognise that the recent oil inspired ramp is based on very little of substance.

Mr Market is increasingly realising that rumoured talks are more about 'maintaining current supply'... not actual supply cuts.
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Having broken a marginal lower low in the sp'500 last Thursday, I'm increasingly starting to realise I should maybe start the 20 day bounce clock again.

That doesn't mean we won't max out next week around 1920/30, but it does likely mean the equity bears won't get to see any sustained sig' downside until the latter half of March.

To me, there seems ZERO reason to get involved on the short side until next week at the earliest. Even then, for the option/leverage ETF/ETN players... decay will be an issue.

Anyone playing with March index puts/ VIX calls are likely to get ground to dust.

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time for some sun