Thursday 18 February 2016

10am update - opening reversal

US equities open a little higher, but there is a clear reversal (if moderate) underway. Having climbed 120pts across 21 trading hours, a retrace would be natural, with key levels of sp'1900, and the 1871/64 zone. Oil is +2.3% in the $33s.. ahead of the latest EIA report (11am).


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

So.. a retrace?  VIX has certainly seen a provisional break of the down trend.

At the current rate, the equity hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle will see a bearish cross this afternoon.

Its a tricky situation to call the near term.. but once the weekly cycles max out around mid March.. then it should get straight forward again.

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notable weakness... Discovery (DISCA), daily


Marginal earnings/rev' miss, EPS 34 cents... with $1.58 for the year, which makes for a PE of around 15. Overall, I like the company.... almost as much as DIS.

*in terms of downside, if sp'1600s.. then DISCA $20... which isn't that bold a target at all.
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time for some sun... back soon