Monday 8 February 2016

11am update - fighting for a floor

US equities remain very significantly lower, with the sp'500 fighting to build an early floor from 1839 (with VIX 26.48). Overall market mood is extremely poor though, and other than pure cyclical issues of being oversold, there is little to halt the decline until the CEO of print central appears this Wednesday. For the bulls.. she can't appear soon enough.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

So.. we've seen some rather strong follow through from last Friday. Indeed, it is notable that from last Monday, the market has declined by a full 5%.

For now, the VIX remains elevated in the mid 20s, but is STILL not showing any hyper upside.
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Best guess... the 1812 low HOLDS, and we battle upward, but clearly.. from a level much lower than I expected.

Also... any rally (if we get one) is going to drag into next week.

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*there are literally hundreds of notable movers already today... not least...

CHK, daily


Just consider that last summer this stock was trading in the upper teens. Now it looks headed for bankruptcy, along with a number of other mid tier names in the oil/gas/mining sector.

Indeed, the real issue this morning should be what other companies are set to disappear this spring/summer?
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stay tuned
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11.28am.. SDRL -10%..... as the market is clearly warning that is one is on the edge.

Gold +$19, making a play for the $1200 threshold.  Even Silver is following, +1.8%.

Miners, GDX +4.3% in the $17s, but how will they cope if FCX or Glencore implode this spring?