Thursday 11 February 2016

2pm update - chop chop

The sp'500 is holding the earlier floor of 1812 - along with a VIX opening peak of 29.26 (rogue print ignored). Clearly, it remains a borderline situation, with threat of failure at any time. From a pure cyclical perspective, the market has prime opportunity to rally from here.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

Re: metals/miners.... both are cooling from their earlier highs, but still set for powerful net daily gains. More on those two later.. on my other pages.
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As for equities.. we're approaching the 2.30pm typical turn time.... best chance for a late day recovery will arrive soon.

Frankly, any close >1812 would be something for those currently long, but first serious target should be the hourly 10MA, which at the close will be around sp'1835.
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notable weakness:  BA, -8.8%...
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strength... US bonds.. TLT


Breaking a new high into the $135s. Clearly... ALL downside targets are on hold.... and if equities broadly decline into the early summer....  TLT will continue to climb.. and accelerate.
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2.28pm... We're still seeing rogue prints on the VIX

1min cycle


Been happening way too much lately.
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2.34pm.. Fractional new cycle low of sp'1811... but its time for a turn... high risk to the bears from here.. not least on a Thursday.. the week before opex (as Riley often highlights).

VIX +12% @ 29.60s....  still moderately divergent from Jan'20th.
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2.40pm... Market TRYING to floor.. from 1810


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back at 3pm