Monday 22 February 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are significantly higher sp +20pts, we're set to open at 1937. USD is powering upward (esp' against the weak GBP), +0.8% in the DXY 97.40s. Metals are cooling, Gold -$14, set to lose the $1200 threshold. Oil is bouncing, +2.8% in the $32s.


sp'60min


Summary

*GBP/USD: -2.0% @ 1.40, as talk of the UK leaving the EU jumps as PM Cameron announces a referendum for June.

So.... GBP parity to the USD. Great.... just great. I suppose the upside is my trading acc' funds are USD... so technically, I'm up 2% already this week ;)
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Significant gains to start the week, and if you're counting the days from the sp'1810 low, today is day'7 UP (inc' the low itself).

The 1950/65 zone looks a relatively easy target, but with multiple aspects of resistance, it won't be easy to break above.

The bigger weekly cycles are threatening another 2-3 weeks higher before the next rollover...so... a hit of the 200dma and 10mma look viable.

Best guess; Mr Market being the monster that it is.... wash out the bears >1970.... and draw in a large amount of bulls..... but then whipsawing lower from around 2K.

Even a move to around sp'2K won't wreck the bigger bearish outlook... so long as we don't sustainably trade above it.
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early movers

GDX -2.1%... as the precious metals cool
TVIX -5% in the $8.70s.. as volatility is set for the upper teens.

CHK, FCX, both +5%.... as even the trash is being marked up.
CREE +3.6%
DISCA +9.8%

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Update from Oscar



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Overnight action

Japan: +0.9% @ 16111
China: +2.3% @ 2927
Germany: currently +1.7% @ 9543
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Have a good Monday