VIX cools into the Easter weekend

Whilst US equities closed moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued (intra high 16.44), and settling -1.3% @ 14.74. Across the week, the VIX gained 5.1%. The key 20 threshold looks viable late next week/early April.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*note the opening black-fail candle on the hourly chart. Those are often warnings of equity downside exhaustion.
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It was not surprising to see early VIX gains evaporate into the close, not least because of the long 3 day holiday weekend.

A retrace to the low 14s.. even 13s, seems due next Mon/Tuesday, before the next surge, back to around the key 20 threshold.

*it is highly notable, that the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now on the extremely low side. At the current rate, a bullish cross is not viable for at least 4-5 weeks.

By default, 'hyper VIX upside' to the 40s.. or 50s, appears possible no earlier than May.

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more later.. on the indexes