Wednesday 30 November 2016

Can OPEC agree on something?

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2204. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -1.9% @ 12.90. Near term outlook threatens downside of around 2%, but broadly, the market remains strong.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

A day of moderate chop. A touch of early weakness, then a rebound into the afternoon, but some distinct weakness in the closing hour.

VIX remains broadly subdued, the 14/15s remain viable tomorrow, with 16/17s viable Friday/early next week, if sp'2160/50s.

--

Another OPEC meeting

WTIC oil, monthly


Oil had a rough day, net lower by -$1.85 (3.9%) @ $45.23. The market is clearly concerned that OPEC will meet, but will be entirely unable to agree on anything. I'm still mid/long term bullish oil - and the related energy stocks. That view is only re-considered with price action under the Aug' low of $39.19.

I remain broadly of the view that Mr Inflation is out there... lurking. I'd suggest anyone go stare at a 5 year chart for Copper... for at least an hour.

Goodnight from London

Tuesday 29 November 2016

A little cooling

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -11pts @ 2201. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.9% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +6.6% @ 13.15. Near term outlook offers high probability of cooling to the 50dma in the sp'2160s in early December. Broadly though, the US market is unquestionably super strong.


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Summary

It was not exactly the most exciting day to start the week.

It would seem sp'2213 was a short term high, and we're in the process of a retrace of at least 2%, that should see the sp'2160s, where the 50dma will be lurking in early December.

VIX is naturally starting to tick upward, but at best, even if sp'2160s, we'll likely see no higher than 16/17s. Even with the fed raising rates Dec'14th, its difficult to see VIX breaking above the key 20 threshold.
--

The Bullish November

sp'monthly3c


Regardless of any further cooling across the next two days, November is set to close powerfully bullish, especially after a quartet of new index highs.

Goodnight from London

Saturday 26 November 2016

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a third week of upside for the US equity market, with net weekly gains ranging from 2.4% (R2K), 2.1% (Trans), to 1.4% (sp'500, Nasdaq comp'). November is due to settle very bullish, and despite a rate rise coming at the next FOMC of Dec'14th, the market looks very strong into early 2017.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


A third consecutive net weekly gain of 31pts (1.4%), with a new historic high of 2213. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) ticked higher for a third week, and is set to turn positive at next Monday's open.

Upper weekly bolllinger is currently at 2215, and that will act as strong resistance across the next few weeks. The key 10MA is now in the 2150s, and will be first support around 2190/2200 by year end.

Best guess: leaning higher into early December, a retrace to the 50dma in the 2160/70s by mid December, as the fed raise rates. From there, renewed upside into year end, to around 2230/40s. 

Equity bears have nothing to tout, unless a break of rising trend, which at end Dec', will be around 2150. Any price action <2100 looks unlikely for at least six months.


Nasdaq comp'


The tech managed a net weekly gain of 1.4%, with a new historic high of 5398. Underlying MACD is set for a bullish cross next week. A year end close near 5500 is within range. Mainstream talk of the 6000s is (ironically) still yet to begin.


Dow


The mighty Dow climbed another 284pts (1.5%), with a new historic high of 19152. A move to the giant psy' level of 20k seems a given. Based on price structure spanning the past few years, it is not a stretch to target 25/26k in 2017.


NYSE comp'


The master index continues to play catchup, with a net weekly gain of 1.6%, now in the 10800s - the best level since early Sept'. The 11k threshold is in range before year end. From there, the May 2015 historic high of 11254. The 12000s seem viable by late spring 2017.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, climbed another 2.4%, with a new historic high of 1347. This makes for a three week hyper-ramp of 191pts (16.5%). Upper bollinger is at 1317, this week's close is a full 30pts above, and that is exceptionally unusual. First soft support is the 1300/1290 zone. A year end close in the 1400s is just about within range, and that would make for one insanely bullish yearly close.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Trans, settled net higher for a fourth consecutive week, +2.1% @ 9044, the best level since March 2015. The Nov'2014 historic high of 9310 is (bizarrely) now within range before year end. First support will be the 8600s, where the rapidly rising 10MA will soon be.
--


Summary

A third consecutive week of gains, with new historic highs for the Dow, sp'500, R2K, and Nasdaq comp'.

The market laggards, NYSE comp', and Trans, are set to break new historic highs within 1-2 months.

Ongoing price action remains very strong, with the market arguably having already priced in one, if not two rate hikes.

With the uncertainty of the election out of the way, the US market appears set to comfortably battle through a rate hike, and continue higher into Jan/Feb' 2017.
--


Looking ahead

M -
T - GDP (1st rev'), Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer con'
W - ADP jobs, pers' income/outlays, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, EIA report, Fed beige book
T - weekly jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction
F - monthly jobs

*there is a light sprinkling of fed officials, notably Powell on Wednesday, the topic 'understanding fedspeak'. Hmm
--


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Have a good weekend
--

*the next post on this page will appear Mon' 7pm EST.

Friday 25 November 2016

A third week for the equity bulls

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2213. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. VIX settled -0.5% @ 12.37. November is set to settle strongly bullish, and regardless of a fed rate rise in Dec', broad upside into 2017 appears probable.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a half day of trading, with the market naturally trading in holiday mode. Equities opened moderately higher, but it was more than enough to generate a quartet of new historic highs for the Dow, sp'500, nasdaq comp', and the R2K.

VIX remains very subdued, stuck sub-teens. At best, a test of the 50dma in the sp'2160/70s in first half of December, which might equate to VIX 16/17s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST, and will fully detail the US weekly indexes

Thursday 24 November 2016

Got your Dow 20k hat yet?

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +1pt @ 2204. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.0% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled +0.2% @ 12.43. Near term outlook offers further price chop for the half trading day of Friday, as the market remains super strong.


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Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with new historic highs for the Dow (19083) and R2K (1342).

Market volatility remains naturally very subdued, with the VIX still stuck in the sub-teens. Even when the fed raise rates Dec'14th, that probably won't be enough to kick the VIX back above the key 20 threshold.

At best, a test of the 50dma... which in early December will be in the sp'2160s, and that might equate to VIX 16/17s.

--
notable strength, Dow, monthly


The mighty Dow is currently net higher for the month by a monstrous 940pts (5.2%), having already pushed into the 19000s.

Like a stock that trades into the $90s... by default, an eventual move to at least test the next psy level of $100 would be highly probable. It is thus not a bold thing to say we'll at least see the Dow test 20k. Whether that is before year end, or not until early 2017... to quote one of the most crooked politicians of the early 21st century, 'what difference does it make?'.
--


To my American readers (and most of you are)... Happy thanksgiving

Enjoy the day off from the twisted casino, and keep in mind, the Friday closing bell is at 1pm.

Goodnight from London
--

*the next post will likely appear Friday @ 3pm EST.

Wednesday 23 November 2016

Another set of new historic highs

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +4pts @ 2202. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled -0.1% @ 12.41. Near term outlook offers a great deal of subdued chop across the remaining 1.5 trading days of this holiday week.


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Summary

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with the same quartet of indexes (sp, dow, r2K, nasdaq comp') pushing further into new territory.

VIX remains naturally subdued, stuck in the low/sub teens.

A very basic retrace would be to test the 50dma - soon in the sp'2150s, but that increasingly looks out of range, as there are now just 4.5 trading days left of the month. On balance, a test of the 50dma - in the 2160/70s - just ahead of the Dec'14th FOMC, seems probable, before resuming higher into year end.
--

Update from a typically loud Mr C.

--

Indeed, Dr Copper is something that merits attention.
--

For those inclined, some macro chatter.. Mr Long with Rubino



--
Goodnight from London

Tuesday 22 November 2016

A quartet of new historic highs

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +16pts @ 2198. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.5%. VIX settled -3.3% @ 12.42. Near term outlook offers threat of a retrace to the 50dma in the sp'2150s, but broadly, the US market is unquestionably super strong.


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Summary

The week began on a moderately bullish note, but that was still more than enough to achieve no less than four new historic highs in the Dow, sp'500, R2K, and Nasdaq comp'. That just leaves the NYSE comp' and Transports, which will surely follow by early spring 2017.

VIX remains crushed, unable to even hold the 13s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid December. It is highly arguable that a second fed rate rise (Dec'14th) is FULLY priced in. Assuming that is the case, its difficult to see VIX break >20 for the remainder of the year.

Sure, there will be equity retraces into year end - especially for the usual tax reasons, but broadly, the US market is unquestionably strong.
--


Brief update on WTIC oil, monthly2


WTIC has swung from the $42s to the $48s. Broader upside to the upper bollinger around the $60 threshold remains a valid target for spring 2017. If that occurs, it'll really help kick the energy sector higher, and drag the main market with it.

Goodnight from London

Saturday 19 November 2016

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was another bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 3.2% (Transports), 1.6% (Nasdaq comp'), 0.8% (sp'500) to 0.1% (Dow). Near term outlook still threatens a minor retrace of around 1.5-2.0%, but broadly, the US market is super strong, which remains especially impressive considering the USD.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


A second consecutive net weekly gain of 17pts (0.8%), settling @ 2181. There was a notable intra week high of 2189, a mere 4pts (0.2%) shy of the Aug'2015 historic high. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked higher for a second week, and is set for a bullish cross within two weeks.

Best guess: a retrace to test the 50dma in the 2150s, before resuming higher into the 2200s, whether by end Nov' or early Dec'. A year end close around 2250. The 2300s appear out of range until at least Jan'2017.

Equity bears can't be remotely confident unless price action is back under the Oct' low of 2083.
--


Nasdaq comp'


The tech managed a new historic high of 5346, settling +1.6% @ 5321. Upper weekly bollinger will be offering the 5400s in the near term, with a MACD bullish cross due. The 5K threshold remains core support, and doesn't look likely to be tested for some months.


Dow


It was a relatively subdued week for the mighty Dow, but it still broke a new historic high of 18934, settling net higher by just 0.1% @ 18867. Price momentum has turned positive for the first time since early September. The 19000s look probable before the fed raise rates in mid Dec'. Things only turn bearish if the Dow is back under the 18k threshold.


NYSE comp'


The master index saw a moderate weekly gain of 0.5% @ 10709, the best close since late Sept'. Next upside target remains the 11k threshold, where the upper weekly bollinger is lurking. The May 2015 historic high of 11254 looks out of range until early 2017.


R2K


The second market leader ended the week with a new historic high of 1316, settling net higher by 2.6% @ 1315. Price momentum is back to net positive. The R2K has now climbed a monstrous 159pts (13.7%) in the past two weeks. New soft support is the 1300/1290 zone. A break back under 1200 looks unlikely for a very long time.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Trans, lead the way higher this week, with a very powerful net gain of 3.2% @ 8856. The intra high of 8859 was the best level since April 2015. The 8k threshold - once resistance, is now core support. A move >9k looks viable before year end. It is pretty incredible to consider that a break above the Nov'2014 historic high of 9310 now appears within range by mid/late Jan'2017.
--


Summary

All the main US equity indexes continued to build upon their hyper-rebound election gains.

There have been new historic highs in the Dow, Nasdaq comp', and the R2K. The sp'500 is next to follow.

The equity bulls have a considerable downside buffer, and things only turn provisionally bearish if sp <2100/80, Nas' comp' <5k, Dow <18k, NYSE comp' <10200, R2K <1200, and Trans <8k.


--
Looking ahead

It will be a short 3.5 day trading week, as the market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday is a half day. Some traders will understandably take the entire week off, if only to do some shopping, and enjoy a pre-Christmas feast.

M -
T - Existing home sales, Richmond fed'
W - Durable goods orders, weekly jobs, FHFA house price index, PMI manu', new home sales, consumer sent', EIA report, FOMC minutes (2pm).

T - CLOSED
F - intl' trade, PMI serv'.   *EARLY CLOSE @ 1pm EST*

*the only fed official scheduled is Fischer, due next Monday morning at the CFR in NYC.
--


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Have a good weekend
--
* the next post on this page will appear Mon' @ 7pm EST

A second week for the bulls

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -5pts @ 2181. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively. VIX settled -3.7% @ 12.85. Near term outlook offers a small retrace of 1.5-2.0% to around the 50dma - in the sp'2150s. Broadly, the US market is unquestionably super strong.


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Summary

*notable new historic highs of Nasdaq comp' 5346 and R2K 1316
--

It was a naturally choppy opex-end to the week. Cyclically, we're seeing price momentum start to tick lower, although a bearish MACD cross seems unlikely for at least clear two weeks.

VIX remained subdued, and there were the usual 'games' as it was knocked an extra bit lower into the close and in the brief 15mins of AH trade.

It was unquestionably another week for the equity bulls, with new historic highs in the Dow, Nasdaq comp', and the R2K. The sp', NYSE comp', and even the Transports can be expected to follow in the days, and weeks ahead.

Goodnight from London
--

*the weekend post will fully detail the US weekly indexes, and will appear Sat' @ 12pm EST.

Friday 18 November 2016

Just another new historic high

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +10pts @ 2187. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled both higher by around 0.5%. VIX settled -2.7% @ 13.35. Near term outlook threatens a retrace to the 50dma, but broadly the market remains strong, which is especially impressive considering the USD.


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Summary

Well, so much for the retrace happening this week. Instead, equities have just continued to claw upward. Considering its opex tomorrow, at best, a weekly close around sp'2170, but that'd still make for a minor net weekly gain.

VIX remains naturally subdued.. even seeing the 12s this morning. The key 20 threshold looks a stretch.. even in mid Dec' - when the fed will raise rates.
 

--
R2K, monthly


Today saw the TENTH consecutive net daily gain for the R2K, is that a new record? I will merely add, even I am somewhat amazed to see R2K in the 1300s, as it was trading at 1156 on Nov'3rd. Mainstream talk will now move to talk of 1500s in 2017. A few of the more 'wild ones', will start talking about 'R2K @ 2K'.

Goodnight from London

Thursday 17 November 2016

Awaiting the Yellen

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -3pts @ 2176. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.7% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +2.6% @ 13.72. Near term outlook still threatens cooling to the mid sp'2140s. Broadly though, underlying price action remains strong.


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Summary

Another not particularly exciting day in market land. Indeed, last week's wild price moves, probably won't be seen again for many months... maybe a few years.

VIX remains subdued in the low teens. At best.. if sp'2140s, the 17s look viable. The key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid December, when the fed will raise rates.
--


Copper, monthly


Price action in copper remains interesting, having cooled from $2.73 to 2.47. The break above descending trend/resistance that stretches back to 2011 is extremely significant. Another push towards the $3 threshold looks a given.

--

More fedspeak

Thursday morning will see the CEO of print central, aka Yellen, give testimony to the US house. That would be an ideal excuse for the market to sell significantly lower... if briefly.

Perhaps we'll hear some questions from some of the representatives about fiscal stimulus - via Trump infrastructure plans, rather than via monetary policy. In any case... it'll be something to watch tomorrow. Any weakness in Yellen - which is always a threat, would be the excuse for a sig' wave lower, ahead of the Friday opex.

Goodnight from London

Wednesday 16 November 2016

The old leader powering upward

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +16pts @ 2180. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively. VIX settled -7.7% @ 13.37. Near term outlook still offers threat of a cooling wave to the mid sp'2140s, before resuming higher after opex.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

It was a rather tedious day in equity land, with much of the day comprised of minor chop. Yet, there was some distinct strength in the late afternoon, with the sp' coming within 2pts of last Thursday's high.

VIX was naturally ground lower, and is now close to levels from last Thursday morning.

Right now, best guess is that Mr Market will want to washout some of the weaker bull hands before opex/weekend. At best.. the mid sp'2140s look viable, before whipsawing back upward. Considering the new historic highs in the Dow/R2K, a Nov' close in the 2200s is clearly within range.

--
Transports, monthly2


The 'old leader' - Transports, is racing to catch up, with a new high of 8844, the best level since May 2015. The Nov'2014 historic high of 9310 still looks a few months away.

Equity bears can't get confident unless a break back under the 8k threshold, which frankly now looks like a damn solid floor, that will likely hold for much.. if not all of 2017. Anyone doubt 10K tranny within 6-12 months?
--

Meanwhile... on clown finance TV...


... and on that image...

Goodnight from London

Tuesday 15 November 2016

The R2K follows the Dow

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp' u/c @ 2164. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.2% and 1.2% respectively. VIX settled +2.2% @ 14.48. Near term outlook offers a moderate retrace to the 50dma around sp'2144. Broadly though, with new historic highs in the Dow and R2K, the market is very strong.


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VIX'daily3



Summary

A pretty mixed start to the week, with the headline indexes - sp/dow/nasdaq seeing minor chop, leaning on the slightly weaker side.

The market is arguably just consolidating after last weeks hyper-rebound. It is opex week, so a fair amount of chop can be expected.

A close second to the USD breaking above the DXY 100 threshold, was the new historic high in the R2K of 1306.

R2K, monthly


The R2K is now a massive 9% higher, and we're only halfway through the month! Upper bollinger will be offering the 1320s in early December. Anything >1350 looks out of range until Jan/Feb' 2017. In any case though, the current monthly candle is powerfully bullish, and it solidifies last week's low of 1156 as a key floor.

Equity bears have no right to tout anything unless R2K <1156, and that is around 12% lower!

Goodnight from London

Saturday 12 November 2016

Weekend update - US monthly indexes

With the uncertainty of a fiercely contested election out of the way, US equities are powering upward. The sp'500 is currently net higher for November by 38pts (1.8%) @ 2164. With the Dow already breaking a new historic high of 18873, other indexes can be expected to follow in the weeks and months ahead.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


The sp'500 has broadly cooled from an Aug' high of 2193 to last Friday's low of 2083. Election night futures offered an equiv' low of 2032, but Wednesday only saw an early low of 2125 before whipsawing upward to 2182.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains fractionally negative, but will surely turn positive.. whether by end month, or at the December open. The key 10MA is currently at 2105, with the market due to settle November well above it. In theory, there is a viable 'easy upside' of 4-6 months. 

Best guess: the 2200s, certainly before year end, even as the fed will raise rates in mid Dec'. The 2300s look out of range until the new year, as the upper bollinger is only offering the 2220s in the near term.

Equity bears now have to see the 2083 low broken before having any degree of audacity to call for anything lower.


Nasdaq comp'


The tech saw a low this week of 5034, and indeed, the giant psy' level of 5K is powerful support. With the mainstream shock at the election of Trump, equity bears had their best chance to break significantly lower... but failed. The current net gain of 0.9% is minor, but its notable that the Nasdaq is only 2% below the Sept' high of 5342. The 6000s remain on the menu in the mid term.


Dow


The mighty Dow saw some prints of -800pts in the 17500s overnight Tue/Wed, but there was a massive hyper-rebound, and the Dow has already broken a new historic high of 18873. The 19000s are clearly coming. By default, any price action >19k offers a straight run to the giant psy' level of 20k, certainly no later than April/May 2017.

The 1.618x fib' extrap from the 2009 low is 18974 - equiv' to sp'2138. Dow 19000s will open the window to broader upside to the next key fib' of 26072, whether in 2017 or sometime in 2018.


NYSE comp'


The master index is currently up 1.6% in the 10600s, and notably above the key 10MA. Next stop is the 11k threshold. After that, the May 2015 high of 11254, which is where the upper bollinger is current lurking.


R2K


The second market leader - R2K, is racing upward, currently +7.6% for the month. The Friday close of 1282 is a mere 14pts from the 2015 high. The 1300s now look imminent. Underlying price momentum continues to strengthen.


Trans


The 'old leader' - Trans, is currently +6.5% for the month, in the 8500s. Underlying MACD cycle has turned positive for the first time since March 2015. Next soft target is the upper bollinger in the 8700s, and then the 9k threshold. Even at the current rate, a new historic high (>9310) still looks a good 3-4 months away.
--


Summary

US equities have seen a choppy down wave from Aug/Sept' come to an end, with an overnight election washout, and subsequent hyper-rebound.

The Dow is leading the charge higher, with the R2K, SP', and Nasdaq comp', set to break new historic highs in the near term.

With the great uncertainty of the election out of the way, all that is left for the market to deal with this year is a fed rate rise. That is arguably already fully priced in.

Best guess: continued upside into year end, and probably stretching all the way into late spring/early summer 2017.


Looking ahead

The first 'normal' week in around a month. Earnings are largely done, and the market will be back to focusing on econ-data and what the maniacs at the fed say.

M - -
T - retail sales, empire state, import/export prices, bus' invent
W - PPI, indust' prod, housing market, EIA report
T - weekly jobs, CPI, housing starts, phil fed'
F - leading indicators.   *OPEX*

*there are 13 scheduled appearances due from the officials at PRINT central. No doubt, some of them will be overtly hinting at the Dec'14th rate increase.


--
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