Monday 25 January 2016

VIX bounces a little

With US equity indexes closing significantly lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +8.1% @ 24.15. Near term outlook offers a little lower to the sp'1870/68 zone, and that will likely equate to VIX 25/26s. If sp'1940s, VIX will likely lose the 20 threshold.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to add....  VIX moderately higher, but still looks set for lose the 20 threshold later this week.
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*equity bears should be mindful that if equities open moderately lower at the Tuesday open, VIX will likely see an opening black-fail candle in the 25/26 zone. That will likely clarify a short term floor in equities.. with a probable reversal.

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more later.... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -29pts @ 1877. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.9% and -2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of early Tuesday weakness, at least to 1870/68, along with VIX 25/26s, before pushing upward into end month.



sp'15min



sp'60min



Summary

*Closing hour action: new intra low, as the hourly MACD cycle sees a bearish cross... as expected
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Last Friday I had noted the threat of an opening Monday gap lower.. we saw that.

The market built a micro bear flag in the afternoon, and that was certainly confirmed around 1.45pm.

There is clear support in the 1875/70 zone. Anyone still short.. now faces HIGH threat of renewed upside.

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more later.... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities are set to break a new intra low, with weakness into the close... and probably early Tuesday. The sp'1875/70 zone looks due.. along with VIX 25/26s. From there... renewed strength into end month, at least to the 1940s, with VIX <20.


sp'15min



sp'60min



Summary

*hourly equity cycle is set to see a MACD bearish cross in the closing hour, and that bodes strongly for the bears into early tomorrow.
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Market is behaving itself rather well.... consolidating/cooling from last Wed-Friday ramp.

Whether AAPL is the 'excuse' used for sp'1940s... difficult to say.

What isn't hard to say... we're still headed somewhat higher once the current down wave concludes.
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back at the close.

2pm update - still due another wave lower

Price structure on the smaller 60/15min equity cycles remains a very small bear flag, offering the sp'1870s - with VIX 25/26s early tomorrow. Broadly though, further upside looks due into end month, at least to the 1940s.. with VIX <20.


sp'15min



VIX'60min



Summary

So.. a bear flag.. set to play out into the close.. and with likely further downside tomorrow morning.

A typical floor would be 11am tomorrow.... 1875/70.

In theory, from there, a straight forward 70pts UP.. at minimum
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back at 3pm

1pm update - nano scale bear flag

US equities remain moderately weak, and are certainly not helped as Oil is -5.2% in the $30s. Equity price structure is offering a nano scale bear flag, with likely new lows into today's close. It would seem the sp'1870s are due - along with VIX 26s, before renewed upside.


sp'15min



VIX'60min



Summary

*am tired...

Suffice to add.. energy stocks are getting trashed.

The down grade of CAT ain't helping either... as serious concerns remain about the commodity collapse wave that began all the way back in spring 2011.
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back at 2pm

12pm update - weakness.. ahead of further upside

US equities remain weak - with viable downside to sp'1870 (along with VIX 26s), but renewed upside looks due later this week... at least to the sp'1940s. With the USD moderately lower, metals are bouncing, Gold +$10, with Silver +1.3%.


sp'15min



VIX'60min


Summary

Little to add.

sp'1870s would likely equate to VIX 26s. Right now, that seems more probable early tomorrow, than later today.

So.. weakness into early Tuesday.. then UP for rest of the week.

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*notable weakness... CAT, -3% in the $58s, but I'll try to cover that one later.

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VIX update from Mr T.




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time for lunch

11am update - grey and depressing

US equities remain moderately weak, with the sp -11pts @ 1895. There is short term threat of VIX 26s before equities can rally again, but in any case.. the sp'1940/70s look a relatively easy target, not least if AAPL earnings (Tuesday AH) give hope to the mainstream that 'everything is fine again'.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

So... fill the VIX gap... and then up again.

It will probably be that.

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Here in London city...


Simply lousy... with the remnants of the US snow storm on their way here, not that I'll see snow.
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time to cook

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open a little lower, as the market appears needing at least a little time to consolidate the hyper-ramp gains from sp'1812 to 1908. With the USD -0.3% in the DXY 99.20s, the metals are naturally higher, Gold +$8, with Silver +1.1%. Oil is -3.6%.. around the $31 threshold.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*note the VIX gap zone..up to 26.50. More often than not, those get filled very early.

VIX 26.50 would likely equate to sp'1880/75.
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So... we're a little weak... and even if things unravel across today, a broader bounce still looks VERY probable.

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AAPL has earnings at the Tuesday close...


The $105/107s look a relatively easy target. Mainstream would likely use that an excuse for further upside to sp'1940/70 zone.
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back at 11am

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -5pts, we're set to open at 1901. USD is -0.2% in the DXY 99.40s. Metals continue to bounce, Gold +$6, with Silver +1.3%. Oil is cooling from last weeks hyper gains, -3.4% in the $31s.


sp'60min


Summary

As the hourly cycle was warning about last Friday afternoon, we're set to open the week on the downside.

Broadly though, the market should see gains across much of this week... certainly to the 1940s. Considering how crazy this market often is, the 1970s look viable, but perhaps that will take a few weeks.

In any case, mid term outlook is clear.
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Update from Oscar


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Doomer chat, Hunter with Pento



As ever, make of that, what you will.
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Overnight action..

Japan: choppy, +0.9% in the 17100s
China: choppy, +0.7% @ 2938, a long way from broken support of the 3400s.
Germany: very minor chop, currently +2pts @ 9767

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Have a good week