Friday, 5 May 2017

Problems within commodity land

US equity indexes closed fractionally mixed, sp +1pt at 2389. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -2.1% at 10.46. Near term outlook offers moderate swings into the weekend, ahead of the French election this Sunday. Broadly, the US equity market remains strong.




It was a seventh consecutive day of minor chop in equity land, with a trading range of 11pts. Volatility was naturally subdued, still stuck in the 10s.

Near term outlook offers nothing to the equity bears, unless you believe Le Pen will win on Sunday, in which case we'd flash lower to the sp'2350/40s, before whipsawing back upward. There was a time I thought Marine had a chance, but I've seen no polling data that suggests she can garner more than 35/40% of the vote this Sunday.

Commodity weakness

I could post endless charts highlighting weakness in commodities, but the following is a fair way to summarise...

CRB and sp'500, monthly

Today's close of 177.01 is the lowest level since Nov'2016. The next key low is 176.67 from Aug'2016. As things are, the trend is clearly bearish, having seen a double top of 195/196s. The commodity bulls need to see >197 to have renewed confidence that the past year is just consolidation.

I recognise some of you out there are seeking a major deflationary wave. Well, we sure are seeing something in commodities, but equities remain hovering around historic highs. For the moment.. little has changed. Equity bears have nothing to tout unless we're trading <sp'2260.

Extra charts in AH @

Goodnight from London