Saturday, 15 July 2017

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

It was a bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly gains ranging from 2.6% (Nasdaq comp'), 1.4% (sp'500), 1.0% (Dow), to 0.5% (Trans). Near term outlook offers a minor retrace, but with mid term upside into September. The year end target of sp'2683 remains on track.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


The sp'500 began the week on a bearish note, with a Tuesday 'Trump Jr' low of 2412, but then rebounding strongly upward, settling +34pts (1.4%) to 2459. There was a notable new historic high of 2463. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) remains fractionally negative, but is due a bullish cross before end month. The key 10MA offers support in the 2420s, and that looks secure into early September.

Best guess: a near term retrace to the gap zone of 2435/25, with renewed upside to the 2500s, certainly no later than early September. The elusive 5% retrace seems viable in Sept/Oct, but broadly, the US market is super strong, with the year end target of 2683 on track.

Equity bears should remain mute unless a break of mid term rising trend, which will be around 2350 next week, and is rising around 25pts a month.

Nasdaq comp'

The Nasdaq continues to lead the way, with a net weekly gain of 2.6% to 6312, settling well above the key 10MA. The 6k threshold now looks secure until September, as the 6500s appear viable within 1-2 months. Price momentum is still moderately negative, but a bullish cross is due before end month.


The mighty Dow climbed 223pts (1.0%) to 21637, with a notable new historic high of 21683. Underlying MACD remains fractionally negative, and we're due to turn positive cycle within a week or two. Ongoing price action remains 'scary strong', as the 22000s are easily viable by September. A year end close as high as 23k is possible, and just consider that is only another 6.3% higher.

NYSE comp'

The master index gained 1.2% to 11987, with a new historic high of 11918. Price momentum has turned fractionally positive, with the NYSE comp' well above the key 10MA. Things would only turn bearish with a break of mid term trend, which at end July will be around 11600.


The second market leader - R2K, settled +0.9% at 1428, just 5pts shy of the recent historic high. Like most other indexes, price momentum remains fractionally negative, but is set for a bullish cross within 1-2 weeks. The 1500s look viable as early September. The hyper bulls should be seeking 'R2K @ 2K' in 2018.


The 'old leader' - Transports, was the laggard this week, but still managed a moderate gain of 0.5% to 9742, with a notable new historic high of 9763. The giant psy' level of 10K seems probable in August/September. A year end close around 11k is just about viable, especially if oil/fuel prices remain mid term weak.


All US equity indexes remain holding within the mid term upward trend from early 2016.

The US market is still regularly generating new historic highs, lead by the Nasdaq.

Most indexes have 5-7% of downside buffer before key aspects of support are tested.

Looking ahead 

In addition to a wheel barrow of Q2 earnings...

M - Empire state manu'
T - Import/export prices, housing market index
W - Housing starts, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators, EIA Nat' gas report
F - *OPEX*

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 6pm EST on Monday.