Chop into end month

US equity indexes ended the month on a moderately mixed note, sp +1.4pts at 2823. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.5% respectively. VIX settled -8.4% at 13.54. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, the 2900s appear on the menu for the latter half of February.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but maxed out at 2839, and then saw chop across the day. Once the FOMC was out of the way, the market leaned weak, breaking a new intralow in the closing hour, then leaning fractionally higher.

The VIX opened weak, filled yesterday's gap, and then climbed as equities cooled in the late afternoon.

*stockcharts settling VIX print of 13.70 is different from my trading screen of 13.54, and I'll side with the screen!
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YTD performance, sp'daily6

With one month of the year complete, the Nasdaq comp' is currently +7.4%, with the sp' +5.6%. Even the laggy R2K and Trans are still net higher by a significant +3.4% and +2.6% respectively. On any basis, it was a powerfully bullish start to the year.
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The sun sets on an exceptionally bullish January

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Awaiting the SOTU

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -31pts at 2822. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.3% and -1.0% respectively. VIX settled +6.9% at 14.80. Near term outlook offers at least a moderate bounce into end month. More broadly, the 2950/3047 zone remains big target this spring.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately lower, with the market seeing rather significant cooling to sp'2818 by 10.05am. The rest of the day was just minor chop, with a notable fractional higher low of 2819 in the 1pm hour.. which held into the close.

With weak equities, volatility jumped at the open, seeing an intra high of 15.42, the highest VIX print since last August.


The State of the Union address

Pres' Trump will give the SOTU address Tuesday, around 9pm EST. It will likely be an particularly cheerleading speech. In particular, look for some mention about an infrastructure bill, which would be partly financed via super long term (50yr?) bonds. Such talk will likely inspire equity upside into end month.
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Monday weakness

US equity indexes settled moderately weak, sp -19pts at 2853. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +24.9% at 13.84. Near term outlook threatens a further little weakness to 2849/39, but then resuming upward into end month, on SOTU talk about an infrastructure bill.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened a little weak, saw a floor around the typical 11am turn time, with a little wave higher into the early afternoon. There was renewed weakness into the close, but again... nothing of any significance.

With weak equities, the VIX gained a rather powerful 24.9% to the upper 13s, and we've not seen the teens since Dec'1st. It be can be argued that we're seeing particular strength in the VIX because of the amount of earnings and econ-data due this week... ohh, and an FOMC too!

To be clear, a day of moderate weakness after Friday's historic highs, does absolutely nothing to dent the m/t hyper bullish trend. The sp'2900s are absolutely viable into end month.
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January set to end

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.3% (Nasdaq comp'), +2.2% (sp'500), +0.6 (R2K), to -1.6% (Transports). Near term outlook offers further upside to the sp'2950/3047 zone, where the market will very likely get stuck.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp' climbed for a fourth consecutive week, +62pts (2.2%), settling at a new historic high of 2872. RSI is 90, which is the highest since at least 1980. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is the highest since summer 2009.

Best guess: continued upside to the 2950/3047 zone, where there will be multiple key aspects of resistance. A correction of 5% is clearly overdue, before resuming upward. The year end target of 3245 is on track.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close. For me, that would equate to a monthly close under the key monthly 10MA. That currently stands at 2545, and is rising around 50pts a month. So, at the June 1'st open, key support will be around 2800. I do not expect any such bearish monthly closes this year.
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Nasdaq comp'

The tech gained a powerful 2.3%, breaking a new historic high of 7505. The 8000s are clearly viable by mid year, with the 9000s for year end. Earnings from Intel were superb, and give m/t confidence.


Dow

The mighty Dow climbed 545pts (2.1%), settling at a new historic high of 26616. RSI is a screeching 92. Upper bollinger is 26467, and rising 375/400pts a week. As of next Monday's open, the 26700/800s will be technically on offer. Any price action above the next Fibonacci extrapolation of 26702 (the 26800s to be decisive) would be very significant, and give confidence we'll see sp>3100s this year, and that will then offer next grand target of the sp'3900/4000 zone in 2019.


NYSE comp'

The master index climbed for a TENTH consecutive week, settling +1.9% at a new historic high of 13637. The 14000s are on the menu into early spring. 15k seems a given later this year, with the 16000s viable for year end.


R2K

The second market leader - R2K, settled +0.6% at 1608, having broken a new historic high of 1615. The 1650/1725 zone appears due into the spring, before a correction is probable.


Trans

The 'old leader' struggled, settling lower for a second week, -1.6% at 11125. The airlines were hit hard this week on chatter that a price war via higher capacity is likely. Sustained higher oil/fuel prices are clearly not helping either. On balance though, recent cooling is arguably to be seen as sporadic, much like last Oct'/Nov.
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Summary

Five of the six main indexes broke new historic highs, only the Transports missed out.

Relative strength and price momentum in some indexes is the highest since (at least) 1980.

Other than the Transports, there is no sign of a key m/t top, that would threaten even a relatively moderate 5% correction.


sp'daily6 - YTD price performance

Barely one full month of the year, and the Nasdaq comp' is net higher by a powerful 8.7%. The Dow is +7.7, with the sp' +7.4%. The Transports has notably swung from a leader to a laggard, mostly a result of the (unjustified) smack down in the airline stocks.
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Looking ahead 

As well as further earnings...

M -  Pers' income/outlays
T - Case-Shiller HPI, consumer con'

9pm EST: Pres' Trump will give the State of the Union address to a joint session of congress. No doubt, Trump will refer to the hyper strong equity market, and how 'all your 401ks make your seem like financial experts'. I would look for some talk about an infrastructure bill. That would likely offer a major boost to certain materials and construction stocks at the Wednesday open.

 --
W - ADP jobs, employment costs, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, EIA Pet' report

The FOMC will issue an press release at 2pm. No rate hike/policy change can be expected. There will not be a press' conf.

T - Weekly jobs, vehicle sales product/costs, PMI/ISM manu', construction
F - Monthly jobs, consumer sent', factory orders.

*the only fed official schedule is Williams on Fri, but it will be of no relevance.
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Climbing into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a very positive note, sp +33pts (1.2%) at 2872. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.1% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -4.3% at 11.08. First big target remains the sp'2950/3047 zone, viable as early as late Feb'.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but unlike yesterday, the gains were secure, with the market then seeing relentless algo-bot upward melt into the late afternoon. There was a quartet of new index historic highs: sp'500, dow, nasdaq comp', and nyse comp'.

Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling the week in the 11s.
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Carboni on the same page

US equity indexes closed very mixed, sp +1pt at 2839. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.6% and +0.1% respectively. VIX settled +1.0% at 11.58. Near term outlook offers upside into the weekend. More broadly, big target remains the sp'2950/3047 zone.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened moderately higher, but the gains were quickly negated. There was a wave higher into the afternoon, only for a CNBC interview with Trump to knock things back lower. Recent strength in equities/commodities has (at least to some extent) been helped via the depreciating USD. Today's bullish dollar comments from Trump were directly responsible.

Further, keep in mind the importance of the DXY 88s. They are a massively key threshold that stretch all the way back to 2003. Today saw a clear bounce from DXY 88.26 to the mid 89s.
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Carboni on the same page

I've been following Mr C since 2008, and his targets are not to be dismissed lightly. Oscar had an ES target last year of 2650, 33pts below my sp'500 target of 2683. Today, Oscar issued his target for 2018...


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Oscar's ES target of 3258 is just 13pts above my own sp'500 target of 3245. Frankly, its very pleasing to see him post a similar target, and remaining on the same page as yours truly.

The secondary issue about commodities is also very important. For the infamous 'gold bugs' out there, things are soon to get real interesting. Even if the USD can see a multi-week up wave into the spring, it doesn't fully prevent Gold breaking above the decisive $1400 threshold. If correct, major implications for the related miners, some of which - such as Newmont Mining (NEM), have already achieved bullish breakouts.
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A fine day in London city

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Wednesday swings

US equity indexes closed on the weaker side, sp -1.6pts at 2837. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.4% and -0.6% respectively. VIX settled +4.4% at 11.46. Near term outlook threatens a further little weakness, but nothing <2800. More broadly, the 2950/3047 zone remains on track within 2-5mths.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Equities opened higher, with the usual quintet of indexes breaking new historic highs. Again, the transports was the laggard, dragged lower by the market's (bizarre) notion that an air price war is a threat via increased capacity. There was a somewhat significant swing lower around 10.35am, with the sp' cooling from 2852 to 2824, before an afternoon recovery.

Volatility was positive for almost the entire day, settling moderately higher in the low 11s. Its notable the VIX has seen 11 positive closes out of 14 days. That is rather unusual. However, I still don't see any chance of sustained high volatility until equities have climbed another 4-5%.
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Bonus chart: Brazil, monthly

The Bovespa is currently +9.5% at 83680. Its well on the way toward m/t bullish target of 100k. As I regularly note, higher commodity prices will especially help the BRICs.

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Behold, the acceleration

US equity indexes closed a little mixed,  sp +6pts at 2839. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.3% respectively. VIX settled +0.6% at 11.10. Near term outlook offers the 2850/60s before end month. More broadly, big target remains 2950/3047, where we'll get stuck.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, but it was enough to generate new historic highs in five of the six main indexes (Transports remains a little laggy). With equities broadly strong, the VIX was subdued, settling in the low 11s.
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Behold, the acceleration

sp'monthly3b

When seen on a linear chart, you can really see the acceleration that I have been seeking. Even to me though, sp +165pts (6.2%) is pretty incredible to see.

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A quintet to begin the week

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +22pts at 2832. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled higher by around 0.5%. VIX settled -4.6% at 11.05. Near term outlook offers the 2850/60s. More broadly, first big target is 2950/3047, where the market will get stuck.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, but then leaned upward, and built moderate gains into the afternoon. There was a quintet of new index highs, with only the Transports missing out. Volatility was naturally subdued, with the VIX settling in the low 11s.
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Bonus chart: Italy, monthly

The MIB is currently +9.3% at 23890. A decisive monthly close >24k is due, and that will open the door to grander upside to (at least) 35k by mid 2019. Implications for other world markets. I'd also refer anyone to the Russian or Chinese markets.

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Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a broadly bullish week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +1.0% (Dow, Nasdaq comp'), +0.9% (sp'500), +0.4% (R2K), to -0.6% (Trans). Mid term outlook remains bullish, with first big target of sp'2950/3047. The year end target of 3245 remains on track.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500

The sp' climbed for a third consecutive week, +24pts (0.9%) to a new historic high of 2810. The weekly upper bollinger is currently at 2797, and rising around 30pts a week. Technically, the 2830s will be viable next week, with the 2900s as early as late February.

Best guess: continued broad upside into the late spring/early summer, with big target of 2950/3047. The market will be extremely prone to stall within this zone, and then see a correction of 5%. Unless there is a geo-political 'shock' this summer, I'd look for the market to then resume upward. The year end target of 3245 is on track.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close. For me, that would equate to a monthly close under the key 10MA, which currently stands at 2538. I do not expect any such bearish monthly close this year.
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Nasdaq comp'

Tech is leading the way, with the Nasdaq higher for a third week, +1.0%, breaking a new historic high of 7336. The 8000s are a valid target by late spring, with the 9000s for year end.


Dow

The mighty Dow settled higher for a third week, +1.0%, breaking a new historic high of 26153. Note the upper bollinger, currently at 26090, climbing around 350pts a week, with the 26400s on offer next week. The giant psy' 30k threshold is a valid target for year end.


NYSE comp'

The master index settled +0.7%, having broken a new historic high of 13384. The 14000s will be valid by mid/late spring.


R2K

The second market leader gained a moderate 0.4%, but with a notable new historic high of 1604. The 1700s will be within range by the summer. More broadly, a year end close in the 1800/900s now looks probable. On balance, 'R2K @ 2K' still appears off the menu until 2019.


Trans

The 'old leader' - Transports, struggled this week, settling -0.6%, but did manage a new historic high of 11423. The tranny is cyclically extremely high - much like Dec'2016, but that doesn't mean a sig' down wave is due in the near term.
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Summary

A bullish week, with all six indexes breaking new historic highs.

The Dow and Nasdaq are leading the way, with the Transports lagging.

All indexes have around 5% of downside buffer before first soft support would be tested.

Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a majority of indexes see a bearish monthly close.
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Looking ahead 

As well as a truck load of corp' earnings...
 
M - -
T - Rich' fed' manu'
W - Existing home sales, EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, intl' trade, new home sales, leading ind'
F - Durable good orders, Q4 GDP (first est'). Market consensus is seeking 2.9%. A print >3.0% would really help to remind some that annualised growth has distinctly accelerated since late 2016.

*World economic forum annual meeting: Davos, Jan'23-26. That will capture a great deal of media/mainstream attention this week. Interestingly, Trump will be there, due to speak Friday 1pm UK/EU (8am EST).

Schedule: https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2018/programme

**The only fed official due is Evans (Tues' evening). After that, the usual blackout period will be in effect, as we have an FOMC the following week.
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New highs into the weekend

US equity indexes ended the week on a positive note, sp +12pts at 2810. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +1.3% and +0.4% respectively. VIX settled -8.1% at 11.27. Near term outlook offers the 2820/30s. More broadly, first big target is 2950/3047, where the market will get stuck... much like May 2015.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

US equities opened fractionally mixed, and from there, it was mostly a day of very minor swings. However, the sp'500, Nasdaq comp', and NYSE comp', did manage new historic highs in the late afternoon. Considering it was opex, these new highs were just another reminder of how super strong underlying price pressure is.

Volatility cooled into the weekend, as Mr Market shrugged off any concerns about a possible (if unlikely) US govt' shutdown.
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Bonus chart: Italy, monthly

The Italian market is currently +8.7% at 23749. A monthly close (whether Jan', or Feb') >24k will offer grander upside to at least 35k by mid 2019. Huge implications for other markets.
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The sun sets on yet another bullish week

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*the weekend post will appear Sat'12pm EST, and will detail the US equity indexes 
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